NOAA's winter outlook is out: What does it mean for Cincinnati?
There are only 3 guarantees: We will have cold temperatures, we will have snow and El Nino will likely have a strong influence on the weather pattern. NOV's Winter Outlook for the Tri-State has stated that the odds are stacked in favor of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the winter ahead will be without cold and snow. Chief Meteorologist John Gumm stated that when we look at the average temperatures of all our temperatures, it is likely that we will be above normal to some extent. He also noted that even though the odds may be in favour of a drier-than-average winter due to El Nino, that doesn’t necessarily mean less snow than normal. However, there are exceptions to this, with strong El Ninos often resulting in average or less snowfall than average.
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CINCINNATI (WKRC) - NOAA’s Winter Outlook shows odds stacked in favor of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the Tri-State. However, this doesn’t mean the winter ahead will be without cold and snow.
“It just means at the end of winter, when we look at the average of all of our temperatures, it’s more likely we will be above normal to some extent,” said Chief Meteorologist John Gumm.
Gumm said there are likely to be both cold and mild periods of weather like most winters and he also says even though the odds are in favor of a drier-than-average winter due to El Nino, that doesn’t necessarily mean less snow than normal.
“El Nino winters in the Tri-State have featured both above normal and below normal snowfall," said Gumm. "There are many other things which are difficult to forecast far in advance which can influence snowfall other than El Nino or La Nina, and that’s why NOAA’s forecast doesn’t specifically mention it.”
Stronger El Ninos like the one expected this winter often tend to result in average or even less snowfall than average.
“One of the least snowy winters we have ever seen was the winter of 1982-1983 when we only had 6.6 inches. Coincidentally, this was also a very strong El Nino winter,” Gumm said.
However, snow lovers shouldn’t despair. There are exceptions. The winter of 1997-1998 was also a very strong El Nino winter and the Cincinnati area had 31.4 inches of snow. More recently, the winter of 2015-2016 was a strong El Nino winter and there were 19.2 inches of snowfall, which is close to normal.
Keep in mind that it only takes one big snowstorm to take a winter with below normal snowfall back to normal or even above normal.
Gumm said of past moderate, strong, and very strong El Nino winters, two-thirds of them featured average or below average snowfall, but one-third did feature above normal snowfall.
विषय: Cincinnati, Ohio